Sunday, October 19, 2008

Colin Powell

Obama receives Powell's endorsement. This is good news, but also irrelevant news. The scenarios about this endorsement were:

- Obama receives endorsement. Not likely to change anyone's mind.
- McCain receives endorsement. Shock makes this bigger news than it would have been. McCain gets wave of undecided voters that had been looking for an excuse to vote for him.

The endorsement of a major political figure only matters when people do not know much about the candidate. At this point, everyone knows Barack Obama. He's "the biggest celebrity in the world."

It would have made a difference if he supported McCain because he would have received the endorsement during a time where the media narrative is discussing his "surprise comeback" (though there is no evidence that is actually occurring) and because everyone expected him to choose Obama, so the narrative is only fed. Since media narrative is really the only way an endorsement like this can sway voters, this endorsement should unfortunately not make any difference to either candidate.

Still, it is nice to hear.

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