According to all pertinent evidence, there is no proof the "Bradley Effect" will have any play in this election, and there is even evidence that it did not occur in the race it is named after.
That said, already this election 3 Asian American friends of mine (who do not know each other) have performed the action (saying they are voting for Barack Obama, voting for McCain) that the Bradley effect is named after.
That is a small sample, and there is a good chance that their Asian American background has nothing to do with that decision. However, when you think about the Asian American community, you start to notice some trends:
- Many Asian Americans live in tight knit communities.
- These same communities often have their own politics.
- Those politics make a number of families relatively indifferent to US politics.
- There are a lot of social conservatives in the Asian American communities that do have strong US political beliefs (they will vote for McCain).
- Fiscal conservatism and tradition make Republicanism not necessarily conflict with their values.
All three of my friends that voted for McCain had either a boyfriend (2 of them) or a parent (the other) that is incredibly socially conservative tell them that they are voting for McCain, and their relative indifference to American politics led them to simply vote for McCain instead.
In this election, it is hard to be indifferent to American politics. Even if you don't care about politics, it is very hard not to care between McCain and Obama. So my interest is in those people who can still have this general indifference between McCain and Obama, and what their vote will end up being.
To summarize, I think Asian Americans will end up voting for Obama in high numbers - 60-70% at least. But I wonder who is still "indifferent" about this election, and who is going to be influencing that vote. I will be interested to see what the results end up producing.
This election needs to be over already.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Bradley Effect - Asian Americans?
Posted by Librocrat at 4:42 PM
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